East Tennessee St.

Conference:	SC
Expected RPI:	93.0
Current RPI:	93
Expected SOS:	190
Current SOS:	190
Current Record:	23-9
Expected Record:	23-9
Current Conf Record:	16-5
Expected Conf Record:	16-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-1
Current OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC RPI:	97
Expected OOC SOS:	156

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-9	93.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for East Tennessee St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Northern Kentucky (115.0)	Horz	A	81-63	L	0%
11-13	Savannah St. (197.0)	MEAC	A	61-76	W	100%
11-17	Kentucky (10.0)	SEC	A	78-61	L	0%
11-20	Delaware St. (351.0)	MEAC	H	81-57	W	100%
11-22	Troy (194.0)	SB	H	65-73	L	0%
11-25	Fort Wayne (209.0)	Sum	H	83-73	W	100%
11-29	Fordham (290.0)	A10	A	77-82	W	100%
12-6	Northern Kentucky (115.0)	Horz	H	84-71	W	100%
12-16	Xavier (3.0)	BE	A	68-66	L	0%
12-19	Detroit (318.0)	Horz	A	73-81	W	100%
12-22	Georgia Southern (140.0)	SB	H	79-59	W	100%
12-31	Mercer (174.0)	SC	A	55-74	W	100%
1-4	Samford (296.0)	SC	A	72-90	W	100%
1-6	Chattanooga (304.0)	SC	A	66-85	W	100%
1-11	UNC Greensboro (65.0)	SC	H	68-58	W	100%
1-13	VMI (313.0)	SC	H	89-48	W	100%
1-18	Furman (97.0)	SC	A	61-62	W	100%
1-20	Western Carolina (215.0)	SC	H	66-50	W	100%
1-24	Mercer (174.0)	SC	H	84-75	W	100%
1-27	Wofford (129.0)	SC	A	62-75	W	100%
1-29	The Citadel (281.0)	SC	A	71-73	W	100%
2-1	Samford (296.0)	SC	H	96-76	W	100%
2-3	Chattanooga (304.0)	SC	H	81-61	W	100%
2-10	VMI (313.0)	SC	A	56-70	W	100%
2-12	UNC Greensboro (65.0)	SC	A	74-56	L	0%
2-17	Western Carolina (215.0)	SC	A	61-72	W	100%
2-20	The Citadel (281.0)	SC	H	82-84	L	0%
2-23	Wofford (129.0)	SC	H	71-75	L	0%
2-25	Furman (97.0)	SC	H	76-79	L	0%
3-3	Chattanooga (304.0)	SC	N	77-59	W	100%
3-4	Furman (97.0)	SC	N	63-52	W	100%
3-5	UNC Greensboro (65.0)	SC	N	62-47	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

East Tennessee St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

East Tennessee St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against East Tennessee St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
East Tennessee St.	SC	26.65	26.65	72.22	72.22	11.85	11.85
UNC Greensboro	SC	5.73	5.73	78.57	78.57	3.28	3.28
Chattanooga	SC	5.68	5.68	28.57	28.57	-2.43	-2.43
Furman	SC	5.68	5.68	71.43	71.43	2.43	2.43
The Citadel	SC	4.24	4.24	25.93	25.93	-2.04	-2.04
Wofford	SC	4.24	4.24	60.71	60.71	0.91	0.91
Samford	SC	4.19	4.19	28.57	28.57	-1.79	-1.79
Western Carolina	SC	4.19	4.19	39.29	39.29	-0.90	-0.90
Mercer	SC	4.16	4.16	57.14	57.14	0.59	0.59
VMI	SC	4.16	4.16	26.92	26.92	-1.92	-1.92
Northern Kentucky	Horz	3.18	3.18	70.37	70.37	1.29	1.29
Detroit	Horz	1.70	1.70	20.69	20.69	-1.00	-1.00
Troy	SB	1.66	1.66	43.33	43.33	-0.22	-0.22
Delaware St.	MEAC	1.64	1.64	6.90	6.90	-1.42	-1.42
Georgia Southern	SB	1.64	1.64	63.33	63.33	0.44	0.44
Fort Wayne	Sum	1.64	1.64	51.85	51.85	0.06	0.06
Kentucky	SEC	1.62	1.62	69.70	69.70	0.64	0.64
Savannah St.	MEAC	1.61	1.61	44.83	44.83	-0.17	-0.17
Fordham	A10	1.56	1.56	30.00	30.00	-0.62	-0.62
Xavier	BE	1.56	1.56	84.38	84.38	1.07	1.07
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.26	0.26	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.26	0.26	61.29	61.29	0.06	0.06
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.23	0.23	62.50	62.50	0.06	0.06
Georgia St.	SB	0.23	0.23	68.75	68.75	0.09	0.09
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.21	0.21	32.35	32.35	-0.08	-0.08
Tennessee	SEC	0.20	0.20	75.76	75.76	0.10	0.10
Oakland	Horz	0.19	0.19	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Green Bay	Horz	0.19	0.19	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
IUPUI	Horz	0.16	0.16	32.14	32.14	-0.06	-0.06
Milwaukee	Horz	0.16	0.16	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.16	0.16	71.88	71.88	0.07	0.07
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.16	0.16	20.00	20.00	-0.10	-0.10
High Point	BSth	0.16	0.16	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
Memphis	Amer	0.16	0.16	61.76	61.76	0.04	0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.16	0.16	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.16	0.16	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.16	0.16	24.24	24.24	-0.08	-0.08
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	26.67	26.67	-0.07	-0.07
Elon	CAA	0.15	0.15	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.15	0.15	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
UMBC	AE	0.13	0.13	67.74	67.74	0.05	0.05
Duquesne	A10	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.13	0.13	13.33	13.33	-0.10	-0.10
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Presbyterian	BSth	0.13	0.13	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.13	0.13	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Appalachian St.	SB	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
UT Arlington	SB	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Butler	BE	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Davidson	A10	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
VCU	A10	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	9.68	9.68	-0.08	-0.08
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.10	71.43	71.43	0.04	0.04
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
La Salle	A10	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	Amer	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Hampton	MEAC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Delaware	CAA	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.10	0.10	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.10	93.94	93.94	0.09	0.09
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.10	0.10	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.10	0.10	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Morehead St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	22.22	22.22	-0.04	-0.04
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Vermont	AE	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Colorado	P12	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Charlotte	CUSA	0.08	0.08	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Little Rock	SB	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
New Hampshire	AE	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Texas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Providence	BE	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
American	Pat	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
California	P12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
College of Charleston	CAA	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	A10	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.02	0.02	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01